Self made millionaire investor Jamie McIntyre, who is also the author of a series of popular books including, What I didn't learn at school but wish I had and What I didn't learn from my real estate agent but wish I had, is predicting another property boom within the next 3 years.
He says due to the massive labour shortage and with immigration levels hitting their peaks the acute shortage in housing will force another upward spike in property prices in coming years.
Mcintyre comments are backed up by article in the Australian Financial Review (AFR) on 25 June 2008 which reported competition for housing among aspiring home buyers and tenants is set to intensify, with a big influx of skilled migrants helping drive the most rapid population growth since 1988 and exacerbating the Australia's shortage of homes.
Official figures show the Australian population climbed by almost 332,000 people in 2007 to 21.18 million, with more than half of that growth (185,000) attributed to net migration.
Federal government plans to boost the immigration intake by 37,500 to 190,300 in the next financial year have prompted warnings of the rising population increasing the pressure on housing at a time of rocketing rents and low affordability.
Population gain, along with improving productivity, is an important engine of economic growth and also fuels demand and increases the pressure on resources and infrastructure, including the supply of housing.
The AFR reported the nation's spurt is coming as high interest rates, low affordability and modest returns help stifle the construction of new housing. Dwelling starts were down by 3.3 percent in the March quarter and weak finance and approvals indicate activity will stay flat.
One industry spokesperson claimed a shortfall of 31,000 homes in the number currently being built on an annual basis. He also stated tenants and aspiring home buyers faced an increasingly tough market as any acceleration in the pace of building construction was some time away. Tenants in Sydney face particularly tight conditions with rent costs expected to accelerate by 10 percent annually over the next two years with early relief being unlikely even if interest rates eased and affordability increased as the construction of apartments typically involves an 18 month cycle. This means it could be three years or more before significant inroads are made into accumulated demand.
A second industry spokesperson says the looming boost to migration, though welcome by employers struggling to find the workers they need, will exacerbate the pressure on housing. "If we are heading for 200,000 plus in net migration, then the undersupply in housing will be at its most acute since the 1970s and it is very hard to escape it.
The strong growth in labour supply will help alleviate labour shortages, however the housing shortage is approaching extreme levels worthy of a more activist approach by policymakers."
The Howard government introduced measures such as the First Home Buyers' Grant. This meant that more individuals had the money to buy, and so many left the rental market to become owner-occupiers. This reduced the demand for rental properties and so rents remained low.
The increased demand to buy and the limited supply of homes led to residential property prices dramatically increasing. But now, property prices have reached a critical level, where individuals even with the help of banks and the first home buyers grant, can't afford to buy.
With many individuals being priced out of the market, they are now forced to rent. This combined with record immigration and the city living becoming even more desired has led to rents dramatically increasing.
In order to benefit from the next property boom, become an expert in the suburbs that are going to grow in value first. Get to know those areas so you can pick the bargains in those suburbs near the city, near the water or in the more affluent, the more desirable suburbs. If you buy a good property in those areas you are likely to achieve excellent capital growth in the next 5-10 years.
Then over the next few years the suburbs one ring further out will start to make good investment sense. It is only near the end of the cycle that the outer suburbs, those that have traditionally been first home owner areas get good capital growth.
For investors this is all good news. Will we see another property boom within the next 3 years? At 21st Century Property Direct we believe we will experience a another spike in property prices within 3 years.
To contact Property Direct
www.21stcenturypropertydirect.com.au
or call Konrad Bobilak on 1800 448 336
21st Century Education have a range of books by Jamie McIntyre available, including:
What I didn't learn at school but wish I had
What I didn't learn from my real estate agent but wish I had
What I didn't learn from my financial planner but wish I had
What I didn't learn from Google but wish I had
are available from good bookshops or from:
www.21stcenturyacademy.com
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